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During the race for the White House in 2016, Viktor Orbán emerged as the only EU chief to endorse Donald Trump. This alignment was hardly surprising, considering Mr Orbán's embrace of divisive ideas like the "great replacement" theory and the crackdowns on media freedom. Observers observe that Hungary's premier essentially laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid key votes in Hungary merely half a year off, Donald Trump returned some political favors. As Mr Orbán aims for a fifth straight win leading a nation he describes as an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party is behind in the polls. A visit to the US capital yielded more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it brought far more significant pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Fiscal Safeguards

Although before lecturing European states on the necessity to halt all fuel purchases from Russia, and warning of penalties against states continuing to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to allow a unique waiver for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of Russian petroleum. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also pledged to provide a economic protection to Hungary's capital if it faces any later issues, given that Brussels persists in holding back billions in EU funding to the nation on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this deal remain vague. However Mr Trump has shown his inclination to assist political friends as the America granted a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. Even though Mr Orbán did not secure a presidential tour to Budapest, the Washington talks nonetheless proved a productive session.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention likely emphasized the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, before which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, enjoys a solid advantage in the polls. Heads of state have learned not to expect principled consistency from the Trump White House, and accept the American leader's moves to diminish the EU. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens European goals to phase out Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the blocking vote to stymie progress in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and enhancing its leverage in any later diplomatic discussions, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has avoided vowing a significant change on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while stressing the importance for the country to start acting as a positive member state. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to core EU ideals, such as the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics regarding the Ukraine issue risks undermining its future security.