🔗 Share this article

As dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, representatives remained confined in a airless conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in strained discussions, with numerous ministers representing 17 groups of countries including the least developed nations to the wealthiest economies.

Tempers were short, the air stifling as sweaty delegates acknowledged the sobering reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The 30th UN climate conference hovered near the brink of abject failure.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for well over a century, the greenhouse gases produced by consuming fossil fuels is warming our planet to critical levels.

Nevertheless, during more than three decades of yearly climate meetings, the urgent need to stop fossil fuel use has been addressed only once – in a resolution made two years ago at Cop28 to "move beyond fossil fuels". Representatives from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and a few other countries were determined this would not be repeated.

Growing momentum for change

At the same time, a growing number of countries were just as committed that movement on this issue was crucially important. They had developed a proposal that was earning increasing support and made it clear they were ready to stand their ground.

Less wealthy nations desperately wanted to move forward on securing economic resources to help them manage the already disastrous impacts of environmental crises.

Turning point

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were ready to withdraw and trigger failure. "It was on the edge for us," remarked one national delegate. "I considered to walk away."

The pivotal moment happened through talks with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, senior representatives left the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the head Saudi negotiator. They pressed language that would subtly reference the global commitment to "shift from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

Instead of explicitly referencing fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the UAE consensus". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation surprisingly approved the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Celebrations began. The agreement was completed.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took an incremental move towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a hesitant, insufficient step that will minimally impact the climate's ongoing trajectory towards disaster. But nevertheless a significant departure from total inaction.

Major components of the agreement

• Alongside the subtle acknowledgment in the official document, countries will start developing a roadmap to gradually eliminate fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a voluntary initiative led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries achieved a tripling to $120bn of yearly funding to help them adapt to the impacts of extreme weather
• This sum will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors transition to the renewable industry

Varied responses

While our planet approaches the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and force whole regions into crisis, the agreement was not the "giant leap" needed.

"The summit provided some small advances in the proper course, but considering the severity of the climate crisis, it has fallen short of the occasion," stated one environmental analyst.

This limited deal might have been all that was possible, given the international tensions – including a US president who shunned the talks and remains wedded to oil and coal, the rising tide of nationalist politics, persistent fighting in multiple regions, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"Major polluters – the oil and gas companies – were ultimately in the focus at these negotiations," says one environmental advocate. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is accessible. Now we must turn it into a real fire escape to a safer world."

Significant divisions revealed

Although nations were able to welcome the formal approval of the deal, Cop30 also exposed deep fissures in the primary worldwide framework for addressing the climate crisis.

"Climate conferences are unanimity-required, and in a period of international tensions, agreement is increasingly difficult to reach," commented one international diplomat. "It would be dishonest to claim that Cop30 has achieved complete success that is needed. The difference between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide."

If the world is to prevent the most severe impacts of climate collapse, the global discussions alone will not be nearly enough.