A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
